To get past the hype, look at technology shipments to see which way the IT winds are blowing.

Gartner, the technology research house, recently forecasted that shipments of PCs, ultramobiles, tablets, and mobile phones will increase 5.9% in 2013 to a combined total of 2.35 billion units.

But there is a story within the story of forecasted growth of 5.9%. It turns out tablet shipments are projected to grow 67.9% — !!! — to 202 million units this year, while mobile phone shipments would increase by only 4.3% to 1.82 billion. Meanwhile, the poor old desktop is in freefall: shipments of traditional PCs (desktops and laptops) are projected to decline 10.5% to 305 million this year. In other words, tablet shipments per annum are closing in on desktop shipments.

Gartner forecasts a continuation of these trends through 2014, with total shipments next year expected to climb 6.7% compared to 2013.

These data points should be guideposts to banks developing innovation products and services. The upshot: the days of online banking appear to be in decline.