Will COVID-19 burst fintech’s funding bubble?

Fintechs will likely have a tough time securing funding as the coronavirus pandemic continues to shake up the U.S. economy, prompting investors to tighten purse strings. Fintech funding has been on a downward trajectory for several months, but startups and others in the sector should brace for an even rockier quarter as coronavirus delivers its blows in both the short and long term, according to industry analysts. “As stock markets fall, so do the value of companies and that means investors are less likely to put higher sums into businesses,” said Sarah Kocianski, head of research at 11:FS . “It’s possible that the recession we are in, or are about to enter, will simply speed up what would already have happened anyway — lower valuations, lower investment volumes, smaller funds and more focus on sustainable business.” Data through the end of March shows total deals and dollars to fintech companies globally have fallen for eight straight months, according to research firm CB Insights . It seems that any way the data is sliced, investment dollars funneling to fintechs are drying up. Month-over-month declines show funding deals to fintech companies in March totaled 142 versus 196 in February, and 218 in January. Quarterly analysis indicates that total funding to fintechs has fallen 45% to $6 billion compared with $11 billion at the end of 2019. Annually, fintech deals between December and March, a time frame that typically sees between 200 and 300 deals in the sector, have fallen to the 100 to 200 deal range. As for companies looking to enter the space, no fintech startups launched in March, while 19 launched in the same period last year, according to Crunchbase. The decline in funding could shift who controls the terms of the funding deals, according to Arieh Levi, a senior research analyst at CB Insights. “The pendulum could be swinging back toward investors,” Levi said. “For a number of years, founders had a lot of control and were really able to dictate terms and get the valuations that they wanted. I imagine that funding will be a lot tighter now … VCs will be a lot more judicious in the deals they participate in and the terms they give.” Kocianski echoed Levi, adding that “we’ve seen some astronomic valuations for businesses that are heavily loss-making, which was already making some question whether fintech funding was a bubble.” With the downward trend in fintech funding, it’s likely the worst is yet to come. Both analysts foresee fintechs shuttering operations in the coming weeks and months, noting that while they haven’t heard of any companies in the sector closing up shop, there have been layoffs. “If you’re talking about a lot of these companies, they focused on growth. Historically, they haven’t really focused on unit economics or profitability,” Levi said. “If all of a sudden the runway’s no longer there,” then fintechs may start to fold quickly in the next couple of months, he said. Fintechs focusing on wealth management should be in a better position to weather the storm, Kocianski said, as some people will have seen a huge drop in income and will need help managing what they have left, possibly turning to investing as a savings alternative. Neobanks, as well, should be in a good position to survive as they’re likely to have fewer customer service issues of big banks, she said. Despite these numbers, deals are still being completed, Kocianski said, noting that fintechs Yapily, Lunar and Xinja all announced funding in the past two months. However, she said “It’s important to remember that in the near term, there are VCs with funds already raised that need to be deployed.”

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Will COVID-19 burst fintech’s funding bubble?

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